Photo by Erin Nelson
The Birmingham skyline seen from Vulcan Park.
The city of Birmingham’s population has been declining for decades, according to U.S. Census data.
The city’s population peaked in 1960 at about 340,000.
By 1970, Birmingham’s population had fallen to about 326,000.
By 1980, the population was about 284,000, putting Birmingham below 300,000 for the first time since 1940.
However, until mid-August, when some 2020 U.S. Census data was released, Birmingham could still claim to be the biggest city in Alabama.
But no more.
It now occupies the No. 2 spot in the state behind rapidly growing Huntsville.
The population of Birmingham dipped from 212,237 in 2010 to 200,733 in 2020, a 5% decrease.
Huntsville jumped up to the top spot, moving from 180,105 in 2010 to 215,006 in 2020, a 19% increase.
Not only that, but Birmingham remains only slightly ahead of Montgomery, which has 200,603 residents.
Of course, there was nothing surprising about Birmingham’s drop from the No. 1 spot, said Jim Baggett, a Birmingham native, local historian and head of the Department of Archives and Manuscripts at Birmingham Public Library.
“It’s been coming for decades,” Baggett told Iron City Ink.
But now that the drop to No. 2 is here, it seems appropriate to step back and ask some questions about what it means.
Does the drop create a marketing or branding problem for the city?
Does it help Birmingham that its metro area remains the largest in the state?
Are there some good things that Birmingham can highlight as a counter-narrative to the population drop?
And is there hope to turn around the population decline in the future?
Reacting to the news
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Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin
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Upon the release of the census data, the mayors of the two cities offered their reactions.
Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle was, not surprisingly, upbeat.
“I’m proud that the great things we have going on in Huntsville have grown our city,” he said on Twitter on Aug. 12. “To tell the truth, we’re more focused on being the best than the biggest.”
Huntsville is called the Rocket City due to its long history in the space industry. It has grown rapidly in recent decades due to its exploding high tech and manufacturing sectors.
In his statement, Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin said, “Growth in any city is good for Alabama, good for Birmingham and for our metro region.”
Woodfin emphasized Birmingham’s importance, even given the population decline..
The Magic City “is the nucleus of the state’s largest metro population and economic center” and it “continues to evolve as a diverse urban center and leader in regional growth,” he said.
Woodfin said his administration would “closely analyze the census data to determine how they arrived at these numbers.”
In the meantime, he said he is “committed to continued infrastructure, smart renewal and regional cooperation to make Birmingham the best version of itself possible.”
David Fleming of REV Birmingham
The city’s drop to No. 2 doesn’t necessarily create a marketing or branding problem for Birmingham, said David Fleming, president and CEO of REV Birmingham.
“The population decline is a talking point, but it’s not the end of the story,” Fleming told Iron City Ink. “Birmingham has more going for it than being the previously largest city in the state.
“People love Birmingham for its authenticity, its resilience, its magic,” Fleming continued. “This city is rich with history and full of vision and, I’m sure you’ve noticed, an exciting level of momentum. We have our own success stories, and we have to focus on continuing to build on them.”
From a marketing and recruitment standpoint, “Birmingham must sell its character and quality of life,” Fleming said. “People are more interested in those factors than knowing if Birmingham can say it is the largest city. The Birmingham city and region offers big-city opportunities and big-city culture along with a more affordable cost and less traffic.”
Still the biggest metro
One plus for Birmingham is that the Birmingham-Hoover Metro Statistical Area remains, by far, the largest in the state.
The Birmingham-Hoover metro grew by 5.1% and now has 1.1 million people, while the Huntsville metro has 491,723.
Because of that, Peter Jones — assistant professor in the UAB Department of Political Science and Public Administration — said he doesn’t think that Birmingham’s drop to No. 2 creates a marketing or branding problem.
“Huntsville would have to more than double its size to reach the size of the Birmingham metro area,” Jones told Iron City Ink. “For businesses and people thinking about moving to Alabama, I think metro populations matter more than whether cities within a metro are growing faster or slower. For a business, on average, the Birmingham metro has twice the market size of Huntsville, and for people, there’s a larger and more diversified job market, along with more amenities — and a different mix of amenities.”
“The Birmingham region’s economic output is critical to Alabama,” Fleming said. “We must always remember that we are a connected region that powers Alabama.”
The city of Birmingham “continues to be the center” of the metro area, Jones said.
“UAB, Alabama Power and other companies still employ a substantial amount of folks in the metro, and there’s still enough amenities — sports teams, restaurants — to draw folks from other areas into the city,” he said.
All of this doesn’t mean that the “long-term population decline of the core city of the region” isn’t concerning, Fleming said.
“This change of status is not a fun fact, and it should fuel our collective determination to reverse urban decline and make Birmingham a city where people will choose to live,” he said.
Jones also said that all is not positive for Birmingham from a marketing standpoint. “Growth does matter, and Huntsville has a clear branding edge when it comes to a city on the rise,” he said.
The city’s drop from the top spot won’t bolster Birmingham’s long-held self-image as the leading city in the state.
“I guess it would have to have some impact,” Baggett said. “You can’t say you are the largest city in the state anymore. It puts you in a different psychological position,” he said.
The drop probably will have little impact on the city’s influence in the state, however, Baggett said.
“There has also been a push-pull between Birmingham and the rest of the state, and there is still resentment around the state toward Birmingham because of its size,” he said. “I don’t think that Birmingham has ever had as much influence as people think we do.”
City problems
The city of Birmingham certainly has some recurring problems that attract negative attention for the city and may cause some people to move away.
The city’s issues with crime and education have been widely discussed in recent decades, including in the runup to the municipal election held in August.
Woodfin won an overwhelming victory in the mayoral race.
However, his seven challengers, including Jefferson County Commissioner Lashunda Scales, former mayor William A. Bell Sr. and contractor Chris Woods, all made campaign issues of a spike in violent crime in the city and what they said are woefully inadequate public schools.
“I’d say schools are a driver for the city’s population decline,” Jones said. “Based on state performance metrics, Birmingham schools fall behind some of the neighboring school districts.”
Several communities broke away from the Birmingham school district to form their own districts in response to the desegregation orders in the 1960s, Jones said.
“For that reason and a myriad of others, Birmingham has experienced population decline since then, and the ‘white flight over the mountain’ continues today, he said.
Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Tyson said that she was not surprised at the city’s population decline.
She told WBRC-TV in August that Birmingham continues to struggle with crime, education and affordable housing, as well as high sewer rates.
Birmingham City Council President William Parker told WBRC that the city has serious problems to solve.
“We have to make sure we work with the Birmingham school system and other partners, educational partners [and] make sure we address crime,” Parker said.
On the plus side
There is some good news within the population numbers, Fleming said.
Despite the city’s overall population decline, downtown Birmingham’s residential population has shown “strong growth – up 38% in the past 10 years – and it’s still trending upward,” he said.
And there are some other positive trends in Birmingham.
“Our strength as a medical center, emerging hub for tech start-ups and logistics center keeps Birmingham positioned for positive growth in the future,” Woodfin said in his August statement.
“More than any other city in the state, Birmingham can boast a walkable and vibrant downtown whose historic character makes the city attractive to an innovative and creative workforce,” Fleming said.
The coming of The World Games in 2022, the building of Protective Stadium and several other downtown developments “offer an interesting contrast to the drop in the city’s population,” Jones said. “Despite the drop, it still seems the city is a destination for many folks.”
Hope for the future
In terms of hope for the future, Jones said that Woodfin’s big win in the mayoral race could have a impact.
His victory “could be considered a mandate to make some big investments in Birmingham, which may lead to population growth,” he said.
In addition, an increase in federal infrastructure dollars, and potentially other funding, could lead to increased rail capacity, he said.
“I think there’s a case to be made that the Birmingham metro — and perhaps even the city — has a similar positive outlook in terms population growth,” he said.
Despite shrinking in size, the Magic City can perhaps find its own, new identity, Baggett suggests.
“My hope is that Birmingham will grow into something smaller but better,” he said. “There are a lot of positive things happening here. When people move here, in my experience, they generally love the place.”
“Personally, I don’t know if it’s all that significant,” he said, referring to Birmingham’s drop to the No. 2 position in population.
And perhaps there’s some hope for the future that Birmingham can begin to grown again, Baggett suggests.
“I haven’t given up on the possibility ... that Birmingham can reverse this trend,” he said.
“The whole world is becoming more and more urban, and I think more young people my daughter’s age don’t want to live way out in the burbs and a spend an hour on the interstate, and they want the cultural offerings and experiences that you find in the city,” Baggett said.
